ELECTION WATCH 2024: NDA 384 Seats (Plus or Minus 10 Seats)

ELECTION WATCH 2024:

Our Revised FINAL FORECAST and THE BIG Takeaways from this 2024 Loksabha Elections :

Based On Our Analysis BJP/NDA is Bouncing Back to Power Once Again With An Improved Mandate.

Going by the numbers given by the ECI for the last 6 phases our team foresee a total of 641000000 (rounded up figure) voters exercising their franchise this time around by the end of 7th phase Polling will be completed on 01st June 2024 late evening.

Our Forecasts Remain the Same for BJP 334 Seats (Plus or Minus 10 Seats)

NDA 384 Seats (Plus or Minus 10 Seats)

Following Are The Big Takeaways.

NDA NOT Crossing 399 Seats.

BJP is NOT crossing 349 seats or going below 319 seats under any circumstances.

BJP is increasing its votes and seats in all the zones but in the West zone they are just holding on to their seats and votes have not increased..the infographics for BJP and Congress Seats Forecast will be sent along with this.

Congress 55 Seats (Plus or Minus 10 Seats)

Congress will Not be Crossing 66 Seats and Not going below 45 Seats under any circumstances.

I.N.D.I. Alliance 115 Seats (Plus or Minus 10 Seats).

Others Including Trinamool, BJD, YSRCP, AIADMK, AIUDF, AIMIM and few more smaller parties Getting 35-40 Seats.

BJP/NDA Improves their Seats and Voteshare Across India.

NDA STRUGGLING TO TOUCH 50% of the Polled Votes. BJP getting between 40 & 42% Voteshare.

Before this (2024) Election Started the vote difference between Congress and BJP was 11 Crores and after the Poll Process is Over We See It at 15 Crores, the gap is widening and it will become more and more difficult for Congress to catch up with BJP.

INDI Alliance NOT Crossing 35% Voteshare,

The vote share of BSP Coming down to 2.5% or a little more.

SP, AAP, TDP, and RJD are all Increasing their Voteshare (All in comparison to the 2019 Loksabha Elections). Also barring SP rest are increasing their Seats number. NCP's combined tally (seats) will be better than last time but SS (both combined) will be the major losers in terms of Seats.

DMK, TMC (Mamta Didi), NCP, SS, VBC, LEFT, BJD, YSRCP, BRS, JDS, JDU, AGP and a few more smaller parties all are losing their Voteshare and their Seats as well, compared to 2019.

Tamil Manila Congress will lose deposits in all the three seats it is contesting.

PDP is not getting any Seats in J & K this time as well.

I consider it a blunder by the BJP not to contest elections in Kashmir Valley, at least they should have contested the Anantnag Seat where the Gurjars and Bakarwals had promised to vote in big numbers, they have nearly 3 lakh votes in the delimited Anantnag. But BJP leadership (particularly MOTA BHAI) must know a thing or two more about the ground situation there

What NDA Gets (M.P. Seats) in The South Zone, Congress May Not Get that many Seats from the Whole of India.

In Telangana, BRS will lose around 25-30 lakh votes.

LEFT may shed 10-15

Lakh Votes in Kerala.

BJP Will get between 43-45% Popular Votes in Bengal.

BJP will Come Close to form the Govt in Odisha. We expect them to get roughly 63 to 72 Seats. High Risk involved in this forecast!!!!!

A.P. NDA is forming the Govt.

Telangana Regime Change on Cards, post results because the Congress govt will become more fragile.

SS UBT will see a major Crisis.

SS Shinde and Both groups of NCP will rework their Strategy. It's not going to be easy for them in these troubled waters.

Our assessment says Supriya will retain Baramati & Rahul Could Win and Retain Rae Bareli.

H.P. JHARKHAND will face a major Power crisis.

Pollachi and Pathanamthitta may throw a surprise result.

NDA in Kerala is likely to touch 5 million VOTES a Phenomenal Achievement. BJP will win or come second or get a deposit in around 10 Seats in Kerala.

BJP in Tamilnadu will get 11-12% of the polled votes. And NDA in TN will get around 22-25% Voteshare this time.

AIADMK will face its own crisis. Defeated Parties will face Exodus..

UNDERTAKING:-

IF NDA CROSSES 400 and the CONGRESS CROSSES 66 I WILL STOP THIS FORECAST BUSINESS FOR NEXT 20 MONTHS AND WILL RESUME THIS ONLY FOR TAMILNADU ELECTION. I am giving this undertaking since I am pretty confident about my FORECAST.

I will post Loksabha Seat's Name in which BJP is winning this time (2024) I am confident of 90% accuracy but I will post it on 1st June 2024. In the Last Loksabha Election (2029) also I attempted this with a 70-75% accuracy. As far as my knowledge goes no major Poll Analyst attempts these kinds of things.

To be continued........

S.Nagarajan, Psephologist Nmussk Media and Data Analyst

Chennai

E.Mail:- nmussk@gmail.com